The data to be open, in my case.

The "independent" METR that is composed by... Checks notes... Previously employees from the top labs.

Also, the METR report that was one big AI analysis itself - quote from the research:

>Our subjective impressions are likely colored by analysis agents’ biases. Throughout this report, we describe a number of anecdotes of agent behavior that were compiled and summarized by analysis agents, where we were not able to read the transcript deeply enough to manually verify what occurred. We found that GPT-5.6 Sol would often uncritically adopt the perspective of the agent in the transcript it was reviewing

One million seconds is 11 days, a billion seconds is 31 years.

Thanks! But same here imho:

              1,000 seconds =          ~0.01 days (~17 min)
          1,000,000 seconds =         ~11.57 days (~12 days) 
      1,000,000,000 seconds =     ~11,574.07 days (~32 years)
  1,000,000,000,000 seconds = ~11,574,074.07 days (~32k years)

It all seems quite logical once you put everything into the same unit, I think.

Maybe it's just our human calendar/time unit rollercoaster (60*60*24*30*12) that's playing tricks on us here.

Of course it is logical, we are not discussing the math.

But it isn't intuitive, you're not used to numbers that big or that grow that fast.

Few things go from a million to a billion, especially when related to time.

It’s the units that make it seem unintuitive. 12 days is roughly 0.032 years, and 17 minutes is likewise 0.000032 years. It’s relative to how we were taught to view smaller lengths of time. Of course you could argue measuring time by the rotation of heavenly bodies is more intuitive than counting on your fingers for the hours in a day and days in a lunar cycle.

Going from a million to a billion isn't some special relationship. It's just * 1000. It's the same as going 11000 or 101000.

I find it frustrating that people seem to think that someone going from 1M to 1B is somehow different to other numerical operations. It's not. It's 1000 times bigger, it's not a huge deal.

And any exponential growth is also a multiplication, it's not a big deal, just giving example on what they asked before.

Somehow people are interpreting this as some kind of math trick.

It's not a trick, our brains are not wire to deal with numbers growing quickly, but we do understand the math.

Only abstractly. If you are living in the process, it is hard and very few people live that.

Which process, though? Every human alive easily went from millions of cells to billions of cells to trillions of cells.

Yes, recent. Oh dear indeed, it's gotten worse than it ever was before.

I have no problem with vibe coded software.

You need to catchup with the last 15 years then. It's not new at all. But I agree it is getting worse, but it is getting worse every year for a while.

Being generous in my assumptions, you may have missed that my intent by "recent sprawl" indicates, "things are getting worse, at a rapid rate". At no point did I mean malware didn't exist 15 years ago.

It is getting worse, faster. That's objectively true.

Yeah software quality has been declining for years at this point.

YES YES YES YES

That's perfect

wrong link...

this guy gets it

So if they paid for pre-training they would not be able to open their weights?

Not if they want to recoup their investment.

We were this close to glory... This close!

But we got a generic 3D doll instead of forum-like signatures.

Just imagine something like this: https://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/r488/Vayne-D3/HybridSig...

Already 10x cooler, or maybe a long strip of startups / project you've done https://www.carlos-menezes.com/img/before-the-bio/smaller.pn...

damn that's pretty cool actually

Nice! The showcase of companies is really nice

For those who don't know what the Monica affair was: https://meta.stackoverflow.com/questions/393046/who-or-what-...