That may be but there were huge increases in homicide and other crimes in the UK from 1900 to present alongside urbanization. Tolkien would have grown up being familiar with a relatively safe type of rural life. There are even many small villages today with no recorded homicides populated by humans, so I think its fair to argue those kind of places inspired the Shire.
Aphorism? There is substantial evidence supporting the statement that most violence is committed by people who know each other rather than by strangers. Here are some key findings from various sources:
- Sexual Violence: According to RAINN (Rape, Abuse & Incest National Network), the majority of sexual abuse cases reported to law enforcement show that 93% of juvenile victims knew the perpetrator: 59% were acquaintances, 34% were family members, and only 7% were strangers¹.
- General Violence: Data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) indicates that less than half of all violent crimes were committed by total strangers. A significant portion of violent crimes were committed by acquaintances, friends, and relatives⁵.
- Homicide: In 2004, only 23% of murders were committed by strangers, highlighting that a larger percentage of homicides occur between individuals who know each other⁴.
These statistics demonstrate that violence is more likely to occur within known social circles rather than between strangers. It's important to note that these findings are based on reported cases and surveys, which can have limitations, but they provide a general understanding of the patterns of violence.
